NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC LMU
Points 76.6 58.2
Total Points   134.8
Points From 2-Pointers 44.7 30.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 16.4
Points From Free Throws 11.1 11.2
Shooting SMC LMU
Field Goals Made 29.3 20.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 53.3
Field Goal % 49.1% 39.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 41.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 11.1 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 15.2
Free Throw % 67.1% 73.7%
Ball Control SMC LMU
Rebounds 39.7 27.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 6.3
Turnovers 6.2 9.0
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.2
Steals 5.3 2.6
Fouls 13.6 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC LMU
Total Possessions 64.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 61.5
% of Possessions with SMC LMU
2 Point Attempt 52.8% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 22.5%
Player Fouled 20.6% 21.2%
Turnover 9.6% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 4.1% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC LMU
Shot Blocked 4.3% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 35.4% 18.5%