NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IONA FAIR
Points 72.9 68.0
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 40.6 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 21.7
Points From Free Throws 12.2 13.4
Shooting IONA FAIR
Field Goals Made 27.0 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 55.6
Field Goal % 45.8% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 12.2 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 19.1
Free Throw % 69.8% 70.1%
Ball Control IONA FAIR
Rebounds 37.9 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 21.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 10.5
Turnovers 12.1 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.2
Steals 7.7 5.3
Fouls 15.5 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Fairfield

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IONA FAIR
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 67.7
% of Possessions with IONA FAIR
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 28.3%
Player Fouled 20.0% 22.4%
Turnover 17.4% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken IONA FAIR
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 38.6% 30.0%