NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMC PEPP
Points 76.7 58.3
Total Points   135.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.4 31.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 13.9
Points From Free Throws 12.4 12.7
Shooting SMC PEPP
Field Goals Made 28.7 20.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 51.9
Field Goal % 50.8% 39.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 41.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 13.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.6% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 12.4 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 18.2
Free Throw % 67.1% 69.8%
Ball Control SMC PEPP
Rebounds 39.2 26.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 20.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 6.0
Turnovers 9.1 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.1
Steals 6.0 4.0
Fouls 16.4 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMC PEPP
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 62.6
% of Possessions with SMC PEPP
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 52.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 18.4%
Player Fouled 21.2% 24.7%
Turnover 13.7% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMC PEPP
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 34.5% 17.4%