NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCAR MSST
Points 69.0 73.2
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 17.2
Points From Free Throws 11.9 12.5
Shooting SCAR MSST
Field Goals Made 24.8 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 57.2
Field Goal % 43.2% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.9 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 11.9 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 19.1
Free Throw % 70.6% 65.5%
Ball Control SCAR MSST
Rebounds 32.5 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 10.5
Turnovers 10.0 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.8
Steals 4.5 6.3
Fouls 14.6 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCAR MSST
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 68.9
% of Possessions with SCAR MSST
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 22.3%
Player Fouled 20.5% 21.5%
Turnover 14.7% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCAR MSST
Shot Blocked 6.8% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 31.6%