NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCAR MIZZ
Points 75.4 69.6
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.6 16.8
Points From Free Throws 16.9 13.6
Shooting SCAR MIZZ
Field Goals Made 24.8 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 56.2
Field Goal % 43.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 16.9 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 17.3
Free Throw % 70.6% 78.9%
Ball Control SCAR MIZZ
Rebounds 38.0 30.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 7.7
Turnovers 9.6 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.6
Steals 4.3 5.7
Fouls 15.0 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCAR MIZZ
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 66.5
% of Possessions with SCAR MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 38.6% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 23.5%
Player Fouled 24.7% 22.1%
Turnover 14.1% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCAR MIZZ
Shot Blocked 10.1% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 35.8% 23.4%