NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FLA MSST
Points 79.7 78.8
Total Points   158.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.9 44.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 18.7
Points From Free Throws 16.5 16.1
Shooting FLA MSST
Field Goals Made 28.0 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.9 61.0
Field Goal % 45.3% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 16.5 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 24.5
Free Throw % 73.2% 65.5%
Ball Control FLA MSST
Rebounds 38.1 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 11.5
Turnovers 10.8 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.9
Steals 6.3 7.6
Fouls 16.5 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FLA MSST
Total Possessions 74.7
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 75.6
% of Possessions with FLA MSST
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 22.1%
Player Fouled 21.4% 22.0%
Turnover 14.5% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FLA MSST
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 32.9% 30.9%