NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FLA XAV
Points 86.2 80.3
Total Points   166.5
Points From 2-Pointers 48.3 42.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 18.1
Points From Free Throws 17.3 19.6
Shooting FLA XAV
Field Goals Made 31.0 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 66.5 63.5
Field Goal % 46.6% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 24.1 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 46.2 45.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 17.3 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 25.9
Free Throw % 73.2% 75.8%
Ball Control FLA XAV
Rebounds 41.6 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 10.4
Turnovers 9.3 9.9
Blocked Shots 7.0 3.0
Steals 6.0 6.1
Fouls 17.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FLA XAV
Total Possessions 77.3
Effective Scoring Chances 81.1 77.8
% of Possessions with FLA XAV
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 19.5%
Player Fouled 21.1% 22.4%
Turnover 12.0% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken FLA XAV
Shot Blocked 4.8% 10.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.5% 26.8%