NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FLA MISS
Points 85.1 78.5
Total Points   163.7
Points From 2-Pointers 43.1 41.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 19.8
Points From Free Throws 18.6 17.4
Shooting FLA MISS
Field Goals Made 29.4 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 65.4 62.1
Field Goal % 44.9% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 18.6 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 23.9
Free Throw % 73.2% 73.0%
Ball Control FLA MISS
Rebounds 44.2 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 16.1 10.1
Turnovers 10.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.9
Steals 5.8 7.0
Fouls 16.2 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FLA MISS
Total Possessions 75.0
Effective Scoring Chances 81.0 76.1
% of Possessions with FLA MISS
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 21.2%
Player Fouled 20.8% 21.5%
Turnover 13.4% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken FLA MISS
Shot Blocked 8.1% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 40.6% 26.4%