NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FLA LSU
Points 85.2 79.0
Total Points   164.2
Points From 2-Pointers 42.6 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 20.5
Points From Free Throws 18.7 18.5
Shooting FLA LSU
Field Goals Made 29.3 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.9 60.8
Field Goal % 45.8% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 41.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 18.7 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 25.3
Free Throw % 73.2% 73.3%
Ball Control FLA LSU
Rebounds 41.0 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 9.7
Turnovers 10.3 11.0
Blocked Shots 5.7 3.3
Steals 7.5 7.1
Fouls 15.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FLA LSU
Total Possessions 76.6
Effective Scoring Chances 79.7 75.3
% of Possessions with FLA LSU
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 21.6%
Player Fouled 21.2% 20.8%
Turnover 13.4% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken FLA LSU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 9.0%
Offensive Rebound 34.9% 26.0%