NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FLA AUB
Points 75.6 85.5
Total Points   161.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 45.0
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 20.2
Points From Free Throws 23.6 20.3
Shooting FLA AUB
Field Goals Made 23.2 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 61.6
Field Goal % 37.1% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 22.5
2 Pointers Attempted 44.0 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 39.7% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 23.6 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 32.3 27.2
Free Throw % 73.2% 74.8%
Ball Control FLA AUB
Rebounds 41.6 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 15.7 10.2
Turnovers 10.4 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.2 5.7
Steals 6.2 6.7
Fouls 18.0 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FLA AUB
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 81.8 77.5
% of Possessions with FLA AUB
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 21.6%
Player Fouled 24.3% 23.5%
Turnover 13.6% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken FLA AUB
Shot Blocked 9.4% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 28.2%