NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UCD
Points 78.1 75.0
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 23.7
Points From Free Throws 16.6 18.0
Shooting UCSB UCD
Field Goals Made 26.3 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 50.1
Field Goal % 48.9% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 29.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 56.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.6% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 16.6 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 24.3
Free Throw % 76.6% 74.1%
Ball Control UCSB UCD
Rebounds 32.7 27.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 20.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 6.1
Turnovers 12.7 12.0
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.4
Steals 6.0 6.7
Fouls 19.1 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UCD
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 65.0
% of Possessions with UCSB UCD
2 Point Attempt 37.8% 37.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 26.7%
Player Fouled 23.1% 26.9%
Turnover 17.9% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UCD
Shot Blocked 4.8% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 31.4% 20.9%