NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UCD
Points 67.7 62.4
Total Points   130.0
Points From 2-Pointers 26.4 31.0
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 16.2
Points From Free Throws 13.1 15.2
Shooting UCSB UCD
Field Goals Made 22.6 20.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 53.1
Field Goal % 42.7% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 29.6 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 43.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.2% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 13.1 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 19.8
Free Throw % 77.2% 76.4%
Ball Control UCSB UCD
Rebounds 35.4 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.0
Turnovers 13.5 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.5
Steals 5.7 6.1
Fouls 16.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UCD
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 65.7
% of Possessions with UCSB UCD
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 22.7%
Player Fouled 22.3% 24.4%
Turnover 19.8% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UCD
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 25.7%