NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UCI
Points 69.3 79.0
Total Points   148.3
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 47.9
Points From 3-Pointers 14.9 15.8
Points From Free Throws 16.6 15.3
Shooting UCSB UCI
Field Goals Made 23.9 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 60.0
Field Goal % 45.1% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 24.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 44.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 13.9 15.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 16.6 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 20.1
Free Throw % 75.0% 75.7%
Ball Control UCSB UCI
Rebounds 31.2 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 9.1
Turnovers 12.2 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.1
Steals 4.2 6.1
Fouls 16.0 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UCI
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 72.1
% of Possessions with UCSB UCI
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 54.4%
3 Point Attempt 17.4% 18.9%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.3%
Turnover 17.0% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UCI
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 27.1%