NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UCI
Points 63.5 70.0
Total Points   133.5
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 18.8
Points From Free Throws 15.5 10.2
Shooting UCSB UCI
Field Goals Made 21.1 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 54.8
Field Goal % 39.2% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 41.3% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 15.5 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 13.7
Free Throw % 73.8% 74.1%
Ball Control UCSB UCI
Rebounds 30.1 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 9.3
Turnovers 9.2 11.6
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.1
Steals 4.2 4.4
Fouls 13.3 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UCI
Total Possessions 66.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 64.0
% of Possessions with UCSB UCI
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 22.0%
Player Fouled 25.5% 20.0%
Turnover 13.8% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UCI
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 30.9%