NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB IDST
Points 71.0 69.9
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 42.2 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 13.0 18.5
Points From Free Throws 15.8 13.2
Shooting UCSB IDST
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 50.0 57.0
Field Goal % 50.9% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 11.6 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 15.8 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 18.8
Free Throw % 75.0% 70.0%
Ball Control UCSB IDST
Rebounds 33.0 29.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 20.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 8.8
Turnovers 12.4 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.3
Steals 4.8 6.7
Fouls 16.3 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB IDST
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 62.7 68.6
% of Possessions with UCSB IDST
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 15.2% 25.7%
Player Fouled 22.9% 23.9%
Turnover 18.1% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB IDST
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 25.0%