NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB DUQ
Points 64.1 74.0
Total Points   138.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 13.0 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.4 13.6
Shooting UCSB DUQ
Field Goals Made 22.2 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 50.2 57.3
Field Goal % 44.2% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 14.4 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 15.4 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 18.5
Free Throw % 75.0% 73.4%
Ball Control UCSB DUQ
Rebounds 32.2 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 8.4
Turnovers 13.6 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.4
Steals 4.7 7.8
Fouls 15.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB DUQ
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 62.5 68.5
% of Possessions with UCSB DUQ
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.6% 27.5%
Player Fouled 22.8% 22.3%
Turnover 19.7% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB DUQ
Shot Blocked 7.7% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 25.2%