NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UCRV
Points 75.4 72.3
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.2 24.5
Points From Free Throws 15.9 12.6
Shooting UCSB UCRV
Field Goals Made 27.0 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 61.8
Field Goal % 52.2% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.8% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.0 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 15.9 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 17.8
Free Throw % 75.0% 71.1%
Ball Control UCSB UCRV
Rebounds 34.9 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 9.8
Turnovers 10.9 7.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 1.2
Steals 3.4 5.5
Fouls 15.0 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UCRV
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.0 72.5
% of Possessions with UCSB UCRV
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 30.9%
Player Fouled 23.2% 21.3%
Turnover 15.6% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UCRV
Shot Blocked 2.0% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 25.1%