NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB CSN
Points 72.9 74.9
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 45.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 14.8
Points From Free Throws 19.3 14.5
Shooting UCSB CSN
Field Goals Made 23.6 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.3 60.2
Field Goal % 44.2% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 22.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 44.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 19.3 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 21.4
Free Throw % 75.0% 67.7%
Ball Control UCSB CSN
Rebounds 34.4 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 9.4
Turnovers 12.8 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.0
Steals 5.8 7.0
Fouls 16.9 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB CSN
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 73.3
% of Possessions with UCSB CSN
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 18.7%
Player Fouled 26.3% 22.7%
Turnover 17.2% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB CSN
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 25.7%