NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB HAW
Points 70.1 74.2
Total Points   144.3
Points From 2-Pointers 42.7 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 11.8 22.4
Points From Free Throws 15.6 14.9
Shooting UCSB HAW
Field Goals Made 25.3 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 54.9
Field Goal % 47.5% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 3.9 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 12.2 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 15.6 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 20.5
Free Throw % 75.0% 72.5%
Ball Control UCSB HAW
Rebounds 31.4 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.9 6.8
Turnovers 10.6 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.1
Steals 4.8 4.3
Fouls 16.6 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB HAW
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 67.4
% of Possessions with UCSB HAW
2 Point Attempt 53.1% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 15.8% 27.8%
Player Fouled 23.5% 23.6%
Turnover 15.1% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB HAW
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 21.0%