NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB CSF
Points 79.3 77.0
Total Points   156.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 32.4 22.1
Points From Free Throws 16.4 18.1
Shooting UCSB CSF
Field Goals Made 26.0 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 56.1
Field Goal % 46.5% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 26.0 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.5% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 30.0 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 16.4 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 25.5
Free Throw % 77.8% 71.0%
Ball Control UCSB CSF
Rebounds 37.1 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 6.5
Turnovers 14.3 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.4
Steals 5.2 8.0
Fouls 19.9 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: CS Fullerton

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB CSF
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 71.4
% of Possessions with UCSB CSF
2 Point Attempt 30.7% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 35.4% 28.0%
Player Fouled 22.9% 26.5%
Turnover 19.1% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB CSF
Shot Blocked 4.3% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 18.7%