NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UCSD
Points 64.0 74.1
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 23.3 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 30.0 26.5
Points From Free Throws 10.7 14.2
Shooting UCSB UCSD
Field Goals Made 21.6 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 52.1 56.7
Field Goal % 41.5% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 11.6 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 24.1 29.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 28.0 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 10.7 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.8 18.9
Free Throw % 77.5% 74.9%
Ball Control UCSB UCSD
Rebounds 33.3 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 7.5
Turnovers 14.0 7.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 1.9
Steals 4.1 7.7
Fouls 15.0 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UCSD
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 61.2 67.9
% of Possessions with UCSB UCSD
2 Point Attempt 31.7% 38.8%
3 Point Attempt 36.9% 35.2%
Player Fouled 21.8% 22.0%
Turnover 20.5% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UCSD
Shot Blocked 3.3% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 22.3%