NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB UCSD
Points 74.5 74.4
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 29.8 21.3
Points From Free Throws 14.2 14.5
Shooting UCSB UCSD
Field Goals Made 25.2 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 55.0
Field Goal % 43.8% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 29.2 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 59.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 28.4 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 14.2 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 21.0
Free Throw % 76.6% 68.8%
Ball Control UCSB UCSD
Rebounds 35.1 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 6.8
Turnovers 11.0 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.2
Steals 5.2 6.9
Fouls 15.9 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: UCSD

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB UCSD
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 67.7
% of Possessions with UCSB UCSD
2 Point Attempt 35.9% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 34.9% 28.4%
Player Fouled 21.4% 22.4%
Turnover 15.6% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB UCSD
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 20.9%