NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSB PEPP
Points 72.0 73.8
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 41.0 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 15.0 19.8
Points From Free Throws 16.0 13.4
Shooting UCSB PEPP
Field Goals Made 25.5 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 58.1
Field Goal % 49.2% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 13.5 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 16.0 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 19.3
Free Throw % 75.0% 69.8%
Ball Control UCSB PEPP
Rebounds 32.4 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 8.6
Turnovers 11.8 8.7
Blocked Shots 1.9 2.6
Steals 4.5 5.2
Fouls 16.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSB PEPP
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 70.0
% of Possessions with UCSB PEPP
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 17.4% 23.3%
Player Fouled 22.4% 23.4%
Turnover 16.8% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSB PEPP
Shot Blocked 4.5% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 24.8%