NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL ORST
Points 74.1 72.2
Total Points   146.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 25.6 19.0
Points From Free Throws 15.0 15.1
Shooting CAL ORST
Field Goals Made 25.3 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 56.5
Field Goal % 41.9% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 15.0 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 20.5
Free Throw % 73.2% 73.5%
Ball Control CAL ORST
Rebounds 37.2 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 7.8
Turnovers 9.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.7
Steals 5.5 4.8
Fouls 16.6 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL ORST
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 69.1
% of Possessions with CAL ORST
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 23.5%
Player Fouled 21.8% 23.2%
Turnover 13.4% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL ORST
Shot Blocked 6.7% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 22.8%