NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL UCLA
Points 68.5 69.1
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 27.6 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 26.6 17.4
Points From Free Throws 14.2 16.1
Shooting CAL UCLA
Field Goals Made 22.7 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 56.6
Field Goal % 39.6% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 30.6 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 14.2 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 21.6
Free Throw % 73.2% 74.3%
Ball Control CAL UCLA
Rebounds 36.6 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 9.6
Turnovers 10.0 8.7
Blocked Shots 1.8 3.4
Steals 4.5 4.7
Fouls 16.4 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL UCLA
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 70.1
% of Possessions with CAL UCLA
2 Point Attempt 38.1% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 33.1% 21.6%
Player Fouled 23.3% 23.7%
Turnover 14.5% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL UCLA
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 26.4%