NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL WSU
Points 66.3 75.0
Total Points   141.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 19.6
Points From Free Throws 13.3 14.3
Shooting CAL WSU
Field Goals Made 23.2 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 59.9
Field Goal % 38.4% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 41.7% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.3 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 20.2
Free Throw % 73.2% 71.0%
Ball Control CAL WSU
Rebounds 34.1 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 10.6
Turnovers 8.9 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.7
Steals 4.9 4.1
Fouls 15.1 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL WSU
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 72.5
% of Possessions with CAL WSU
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 22.5%
Player Fouled 19.9% 21.2%
Turnover 12.5% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL WSU
Shot Blocked 7.9% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 29.2%