NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL UNC
Points 73.2 86.2
Total Points   159.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 47.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 22.4
Points From Free Throws 16.9 16.4
Shooting CAL UNC
Field Goals Made 24.8 31.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 59.8
Field Goal % 40.1% 52.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 40.7%
Free Throws Made 16.9 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 22.7
Free Throw % 74.2% 72.4%
Ball Control CAL UNC
Rebounds 34.9 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 8.2
Turnovers 9.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.2 4.1
Steals 5.6 5.4
Fouls 15.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: North Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL UNC
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 72.8
% of Possessions with CAL UNC
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 21.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 20.8%
Turnover 13.0% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL UNC
Shot Blocked 7.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 25.7%