NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL UNC
Points 72.5 81.8
Total Points   154.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 24.2
Points From Free Throws 11.5 17.3
Shooting CAL UNC
Field Goals Made 25.8 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 58.4
Field Goal % 41.6% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 60.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 11.5 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 24.9
Free Throw % 76.8% 69.3%
Ball Control CAL UNC
Rebounds 32.2 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 9.3
Turnovers 8.3 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.2
Steals 4.5 4.2
Fouls 17.7 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL UNC
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 73.4
% of Possessions with CAL UNC
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 30.2%
Player Fouled 18.9% 24.5%
Turnover 11.5% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL UNC
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.3% 26.9%