NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL UTAH
Points 74.3 81.4
Total Points   155.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 39.7
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 30.0
Points From Free Throws 12.0 11.6
Shooting CAL UTAH
Field Goals Made 26.6 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 67.1 63.5
Field Goal % 39.7% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 27.5 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 12.0 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 18.4
Free Throw % 73.2% 63.4%
Ball Control CAL UTAH
Rebounds 38.5 41.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 32.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 8.9
Turnovers 8.5 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.0
Steals 5.4 4.6
Fouls 15.1 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Utah

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL UTAH
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.6 74.6
% of Possessions with CAL UTAH
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 30.7%
Player Fouled 17.9% 20.0%
Turnover 11.3% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL UTAH
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 23.8%