NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAL ARIZ
Points 71.3 87.8
Total Points   159.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 46.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.0 23.2
Points From Free Throws 11.6 18.2
Shooting CAL ARIZ
Field Goals Made 25.5 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 65.0 63.3
Field Goal % 39.2% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.3 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 11.6 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 25.6
Free Throw % 73.2% 71.0%
Ball Control CAL ARIZ
Rebounds 33.9 44.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 32.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 11.6
Turnovers 11.2 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.9
Steals 5.7 6.6
Fouls 16.6 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAL ARIZ
Total Possessions 76.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.4 79.0
% of Possessions with CAL ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 23.1%
Player Fouled 18.2% 21.7%
Turnover 14.6% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAL ARIZ
Shot Blocked 6.2% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 31.6%