NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORU NDSU
Points 76.0 74.1
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 23.3
Points From Free Throws 11.2 13.6
Shooting ORU NDSU
Field Goals Made 28.2 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 57.1
Field Goal % 48.2% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 53.0% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 11.2 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 18.3
Free Throw % 77.1% 74.1%
Ball Control ORU NDSU
Rebounds 31.2 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 8.0
Turnovers 7.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.7 1.2
Steals 4.6 3.1
Fouls 15.7 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORU NDSU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 67.8
% of Possessions with ORU NDSU
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 25.5%
Player Fouled 16.9% 22.7%
Turnover 11.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 4.5% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORU NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.1% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 24.3%