NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM ISU
Points 56.6 77.1
Total Points   133.7
Points From 2-Pointers 26.1 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 21.2
Points From Free Throws 13.0 15.3
Shooting USM ISU
Field Goals Made 18.9 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 49.6 59.7
Field Goal % 38.1% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 13.1 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 29.8 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 13.0 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 21.5
Free Throw % 70.5% 70.8%
Ball Control USM ISU
Rebounds 32.5 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 11.6
Turnovers 16.5 8.6
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.2
Steals 5.5 11.4
Fouls 16.5 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM ISU
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 61.6 72.6
% of Possessions with USM ISU
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 22.4%
Player Fouled 20.4% 23.7%
Turnover 23.7% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 16.4% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM ISU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 32.6%