NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM NWST
Points 74.4 65.0
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 17.5
Points From Free Throws 18.7 14.0
Shooting USM NWST
Field Goals Made 24.9 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 59.3
Field Goal % 45.8% 38.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 41.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 18.7 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.6 21.6
Free Throw % 70.5% 64.9%
Ball Control USM NWST
Rebounds 40.1 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 11.3
Turnovers 12.0 11.6
Blocked Shots 6.2 2.3
Steals 6.5 7.2
Fouls 15.7 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM NWST
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 71.9
% of Possessions with USM NWST
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 21.8%
Player Fouled 23.1% 21.7%
Turnover 16.6% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM NWST
Shot Blocked 4.0% 11.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.2% 28.0%