NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM JAC
Points 69.7 67.5
Total Points   137.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 33.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 19.5
Points From Free Throws 17.5 14.8
Shooting USM JAC
Field Goals Made 23.0 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.6 58.2
Field Goal % 44.6% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 42.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 17.5 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 21.2
Free Throw % 70.5% 69.8%
Ball Control USM JAC
Rebounds 34.2 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 13.1
Turnovers 11.6 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.2
Steals 6.6 8.0
Fouls 15.3 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Jacksonville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM JAC
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 71.4
% of Possessions with USM JAC
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 22.5%
Player Fouled 25.3% 21.9%
Turnover 16.7% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM JAC
Shot Blocked 3.9% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 34.2%