NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MARQ CONN
Points 67.3 77.3
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 28.7
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.0
Shooting MARQ CONN
Field Goals Made 24.3 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 59.5
Field Goal % 41.2% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 17.3
Free Throw % 69.1% 74.9%
Ball Control MARQ CONN
Rebounds 30.4 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 12.5
Turnovers 8.6 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.6
Steals 6.3 5.1
Fouls 13.0 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MARQ CONN
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 70.7
% of Possessions with MARQ CONN
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 33.3%
Player Fouled 19.7% 19.0%
Turnover 12.5% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MARQ CONN
Shot Blocked 7.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 36.2%