NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MARQ CONN
Points 67.1 77.5
Total Points   144.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 28.8
Points From Free Throws 11.5 12.9
Shooting MARQ CONN
Field Goals Made 24.3 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 59.7
Field Goal % 41.3% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 11.5 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 17.2
Free Throw % 69.1% 74.9%
Ball Control MARQ CONN
Rebounds 30.2 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 12.7
Turnovers 8.6 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.6
Steals 6.3 5.2
Fouls 12.9 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MARQ CONN
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 70.9
% of Possessions with MARQ CONN
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 33.2%
Player Fouled 19.5% 18.9%
Turnover 12.6% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MARQ CONN
Shot Blocked 7.7% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 36.8%