NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MARQ XAV
Points 82.3 72.4
Total Points   154.7
Points From 2-Pointers 46.1 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 23.2
Points From Free Throws 11.4 13.5
Shooting MARQ XAV
Field Goals Made 31.3 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 61.0
Field Goal % 50.2% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 23.1 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 58.8% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 11.4 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 17.9
Free Throw % 68.8% 75.8%
Ball Control MARQ XAV
Rebounds 34.1 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 11.5
Turnovers 9.1 12.7
Blocked Shots 5.1 2.8
Steals 7.2 5.6
Fouls 13.9 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Marquette

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MARQ XAV
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 71.9
% of Possessions with MARQ XAV
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 25.9%
Player Fouled 18.8% 19.0%
Turnover 12.4% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MARQ XAV
Shot Blocked 4.6% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 30.9%