NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNTC NKU
Points 66.0 76.6
Total Points   142.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 43.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 21.1
Points From Free Throws 9.5 12.3
Shooting TNTC NKU
Field Goals Made 24.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 59.4
Field Goal % 45.7% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 9.5 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 16.8
Free Throw % 69.5% 73.1%
Ball Control TNTC NKU
Rebounds 30.8 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 8.6
Turnovers 13.9 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.3
Steals 4.4 8.6
Fouls 13.6 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNTC NKU
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 62.9 69.7
% of Possessions with TNTC NKU
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 26.3%
Player Fouled 18.6% 19.3%
Turnover 19.7% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 12.1% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNTC NKU
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 25.9%