NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM UNF
Points 71.6 73.4
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.2 26.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 34.8
Points From Free Throws 15.8 12.7
Shooting USM UNF
Field Goals Made 25.3 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 58.6
Field Goal % 43.2% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 13.0
2 Pointers Attempted 43.3 27.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 31.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 15.8 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 16.4
Free Throw % 70.5% 77.2%
Ball Control USM UNF
Rebounds 38.8 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 7.7
Turnovers 9.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.0
Steals 6.6 5.8
Fouls 13.6 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Florida

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM UNF
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 68.2
% of Possessions with USM UNF
2 Point Attempt 52.1% 34.2%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 38.8%
Player Fouled 20.6% 19.1%
Turnover 13.3% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM UNF
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 21.5%