NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM RICE
Points 70.6 71.3
Total Points   141.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 23.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 13.2
Shooting USM RICE
Field Goals Made 25.3 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 58.9
Field Goal % 42.5% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 12.1 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 19.0
Free Throw % 70.5% 69.2%
Ball Control USM RICE
Rebounds 36.4 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.0
Turnovers 10.0 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.0
Steals 6.7 6.2
Fouls 14.6 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Rice

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM RICE
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 70.0
% of Possessions with USM RICE
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 27.0%
Player Fouled 18.2% 20.8%
Turnover 14.3% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM RICE
Shot Blocked 5.3% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 27.3%