NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM GSU
Points 72.9 74.1
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 22.3
Points From Free Throws 17.5 13.4
Shooting USM GSU
Field Goals Made 24.7 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 63.9
Field Goal % 42.1% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 17.5 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 17.9
Free Throw % 70.5% 75.0%
Ball Control USM GSU
Rebounds 40.0 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.1
Turnovers 9.5 8.6
Blocked Shots 4.9 2.5
Steals 5.2 5.7
Fouls 14.2 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM GSU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 74.0
% of Possessions with USM GSU
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 25.8%
Player Fouled 22.0% 19.6%
Turnover 13.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM GSU
Shot Blocked 3.9% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 25.7%