NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM TTU
Points 64.1 79.8
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 27.3
Points From Free Throws 11.9 16.7
Shooting USM TTU
Field Goals Made 23.0 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 59.0
Field Goal % 40.3% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 11.9 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 21.3
Free Throw % 70.5% 78.5%
Ball Control USM TTU
Rebounds 33.0 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 10.9
Turnovers 11.5 9.1
Blocked Shots 4.3 2.2
Steals 5.1 7.1
Fouls 15.8 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Texas Tech

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM TTU
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 71.6
% of Possessions with USM TTU
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 28.6%
Player Fouled 18.6% 22.6%
Turnover 16.5% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM TTU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 31.8%