NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MARQ SJU
Points 76.2 74.9
Total Points   151.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 23.0
Points From Free Throws 12.8 12.4
Shooting MARQ SJU
Field Goals Made 27.5 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 63.3
Field Goal % 46.0% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 12.8 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 16.7
Free Throw % 68.8% 74.2%
Ball Control MARQ SJU
Rebounds 32.5 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 14.8
Turnovers 10.1 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.0
Steals 7.4 5.5
Fouls 12.4 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MARQ SJU
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 74.6
% of Possessions with MARQ SJU
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 26.7%
Player Fouled 20.8% 17.4%
Turnover 14.1% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MARQ SJU
Shot Blocked 7.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 38.8%