NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM UTSA
Points 75.2 75.4
Total Points   150.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 30.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 28.0
Points From Free Throws 15.4 16.7
Shooting USM UTSA
Field Goals Made 26.1 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 63.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 38.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 42.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 27.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 15.4 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 23.5
Free Throw % 70.5% 71.1%
Ball Control USM UTSA
Rebounds 38.3 41.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 12.7
Turnovers 9.1 9.5
Blocked Shots 6.0 3.6
Steals 5.3 5.6
Fouls 15.7 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM UTSA
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 76.9
% of Possessions with USM UTSA
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 30.6%
Player Fouled 20.5% 21.3%
Turnover 12.4% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM UTSA
Shot Blocked 5.8% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 30.3%