NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM SIU
Points 64.6 72.7
Total Points   137.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 12.1 25.4
Points From Free Throws 15.6 16.5
Shooting USM SIU
Field Goals Made 22.4 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 55.2
Field Goal % 42.4% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.0 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 13.3 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 15.6 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 21.3
Free Throw % 70.5% 77.2%
Ball Control USM SIU
Rebounds 33.2 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.5
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.3 2.6
Steals 5.7 6.2
Fouls 16.6 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM SIU
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 67.4
% of Possessions with USM SIU
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 16.9% 30.0%
Player Fouled 24.0% 24.1%
Turnover 15.6% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM SIU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 25.3%