NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNTC UNCG
Points 62.2 78.1
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 34.6
Points From Free Throws 11.6 9.4
Shooting TNTC UNCG
Field Goals Made 21.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 51.6 59.5
Field Goal % 42.3% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 28.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 41.0%
Free Throws Made 11.6 9.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 13.0
Free Throw % 69.5% 72.8%
Ball Control TNTC UNCG
Rebounds 29.0 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 9.6
Turnovers 11.7 9.2
Blocked Shots 1.6 2.9
Steals 4.3 7.3
Fouls 12.5 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNTC UNCG
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 61.6 68.0
% of Possessions with TNTC UNCG
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 36.1%
Player Fouled 21.6% 18.5%
Turnover 17.3% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNTC UNCG
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 17.5% 29.1%