NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MARQ UNC
Points 74.8 78.2
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 27.4
Points From Free Throws 10.6 14.6
Shooting MARQ UNC
Field Goals Made 27.9 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 64.0
Field Goal % 45.1% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 10.6 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 19.3
Free Throw % 69.1% 75.4%
Ball Control MARQ UNC
Rebounds 32.7 42.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 13.5
Turnovers 9.2 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.6
Steals 5.6 5.3
Fouls 13.9 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MARQ UNC
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 76.1
% of Possessions with MARQ UNC
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 29.0%
Player Fouled 19.0% 19.1%
Turnover 12.6% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MARQ UNC
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 34.5%