NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNTC TROY
Points 64.3 79.2
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 26.9
Points From Free Throws 12.4 14.5
Shooting TNTC TROY
Field Goals Made 22.9 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 51.6 59.2
Field Goal % 44.4% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 12.4 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 19.8
Free Throw % 69.5% 73.4%
Ball Control TNTC TROY
Rebounds 29.1 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 10.9
Turnovers 15.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.5
Steals 5.4 10.7
Fouls 14.1 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNTC TROY
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 62.3 71.8
% of Possessions with TNTC TROY
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 29.4%
Player Fouled 22.0% 19.7%
Turnover 21.0% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 14.9% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNTC TROY
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.2% 31.8%