NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MINN PSU
Points 72.1 74.0
Total Points   146.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 37.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.0 14.8
Shooting MINN PSU
Field Goals Made 25.5 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 58.2
Field Goal % 47.1% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 15.0 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 19.7
Free Throw % 67.9% 74.9%
Ball Control MINN PSU
Rebounds 35.8 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 8.5
Turnovers 12.8 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.5
Steals 5.6 7.9
Fouls 14.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MINN PSU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 69.9
% of Possessions with MINN PSU
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 24.2%
Player Fouled 21.9% 20.8%
Turnover 18.0% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MINN PSU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 24.4%