NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAN NKU
Points 70.0 72.7
Total Points   142.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 17.5
Points From Free Throws 8.5 13.5
Shooting CAN NKU
Field Goals Made 26.9 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 59.1
Field Goal % 44.4% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 8.5 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 18.4
Free Throw % 59.8% 73.1%
Ball Control CAN NKU
Rebounds 39.3 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 8.7
Turnovers 13.5 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 1.8
Steals 5.1 7.4
Fouls 15.2 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Canisius

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAN NKU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 69.9
% of Possessions with CAN NKU
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 21.7%
Player Fouled 17.2% 21.3%
Turnover 19.0% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAN NKU
Shot Blocked 3.0% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 35.6% 25.0%