NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TLSA HOU
Points 54.8 81.0
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 20.9 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 25.0
Points From Free Throws 17.5 15.9
Shooting TLSA HOU
Field Goals Made 15.9 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 45.7 62.9
Field Goal % 34.9% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 10.5 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 25.5 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.1% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 17.5 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 22.4
Free Throw % 73.6% 71.1%
Ball Control TLSA HOU
Rebounds 29.8 41.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 15.1
Turnovers 16.1 7.6
Blocked Shots 1.7 4.0
Steals 4.5 9.5
Fouls 14.8 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Tulsa

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TLSA HOU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 60.1 77.3
% of Possessions with TLSA HOU
2 Point Attempt 32.7% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 27.8%
Player Fouled 25.0% 21.3%
Turnover 23.2% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 13.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TLSA HOU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 39.4%