NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TLSA UCF
Points 63.4 75.0
Total Points   138.4
Points From 2-Pointers 25.1 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 21.1
Points From Free Throws 19.8 17.9
Shooting TLSA UCF
Field Goals Made 18.7 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 48.5 58.2
Field Goal % 38.5% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 12.5 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 28.0 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 19.8 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 27.0 26.0
Free Throw % 73.6% 68.6%
Ball Control TLSA UCF
Rebounds 31.2 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 12.9
Turnovers 14.6 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.7
Steals 6.2 8.6
Fouls 16.8 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Tulsa

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TLSA UCF
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 74.8
% of Possessions with TLSA UCF
2 Point Attempt 34.7% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 24.7%
Player Fouled 25.5% 23.0%
Turnover 19.9% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TLSA UCF
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 18.3% 34.0%