NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB BAY
Points 66.0 98.1
Total Points   164.1
Points From 2-Pointers 26.8 46.7
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 31.4
Points From Free Throws 13.6 20.0
Shooting ARPB BAY
Field Goals Made 21.9 33.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 60.3
Field Goal % 39.8% 56.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 29.6 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 70.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 10.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 13.6 20.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 27.4
Free Throw % 75.0% 73.1%
Ball Control ARPB BAY
Rebounds 22.5 43.9
Rebounds - Defensive 17.7 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 4.9 13.4
Turnovers 12.0 8.3
Blocked Shots 1.2 3.6
Steals 4.3 6.6
Fouls 17.9 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Ark Pine Bl

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB BAY
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 77.7
% of Possessions with ARPB BAY
2 Point Attempt 37.5% 38.1%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 31.7%
Player Fouled 21.6% 24.6%
Turnover 16.5% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB BAY
Shot Blocked 6.0% 2.1%
Offensive Rebound 13.7% 43.1%