NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB ALCN
Points 80.3 86.0
Total Points   166.2
Points From 2-Pointers 24.4 51.1
Points From 3-Pointers 39.8 18.5
Points From Free Throws 16.1 16.4
Shooting ARPB ALCN
Field Goals Made 25.5 31.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 63.7
Field Goal % 46.4% 49.8%
2 Pointers Made 12.2 25.6
2 Pointers Attempted 21.5 45.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 33.3 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 39.8% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 16.1 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 22.7
Free Throw % 75.0% 72.2%
Ball Control ARPB ALCN
Rebounds 28.2 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 13.8
Turnovers 10.9 8.2
Blocked Shots 1.5 1.9
Steals 4.0 6.1
Fouls 15.2 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Alcorn St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB ALCN
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 78.2
% of Possessions with ARPB ALCN
2 Point Attempt 27.0% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 41.9% 21.5%
Player Fouled 22.9% 20.9%
Turnover 15.0% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB ALCN
Shot Blocked 3.0% 2.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.1% 38.6%